Here’s What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

As you might know, Arrow Electronics, Inc. (NYSE:ARW) just kicked off its latest quarterly results with some very strong numbers. The company beat both earnings and revenue forecasts, with revenue of US$7.2b, some 7.4% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$2.13, 38% ahead of expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we’ve aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Arrow Electronics after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Arrow Electronics

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After the latest results, the nine analysts covering Arrow Electronics are now predicting revenues of US$29.2b in 2021. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 5.9% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 37% to US$7.96. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$28.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.56 in 2021. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.

It will come as no surprise to learn that the analysts have increased their price target for Arrow Electronics 9.7% to US$87.88on the back of these upgrades. There’s another way to think about price targets though, and that’s to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Arrow Electronics analyst has a price target of US$113 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$81.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Arrow Electronics’historical trends, as next year’s 5.9% revenue growth is roughly in line with 5.2% annual revenue growth over the past five years. Compare this with the wider industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 7.8% next year. So although Arrow Electronics is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it’s forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Arrow Electronics following these results. Fortunately, they

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Slump in Air Travel Hindered Weather Forecasting, Study Shows

Government researchers have confirmed that the steep decline in air traffic during the coronavirus pandemic has affected the quality of weather forecasting models by sharply reducing the amount of atmospheric data routinely collected by commercial airliners.

In a study, researchers showed that when a short-term forecasting model received less data on temperature, wind and humidity from aircraft, the forecast skill (the difference between predicted meteorological conditions and what actually occurred) was worse.

The researchers and others had suspected this would be the case because atmospheric observations from passenger and cargo flights are among the most important data used in forecasting models. The observations are made by instruments aboard thousands of airliners, mostly based in North America and Europe, as part of a program in place for decades. They are transmitted in real time to forecasting organizations around the world, including the National Weather Service.

During the first months of the pandemic, when air traffic declined by 75 percent or more worldwide, the number of observations dropped by about the same percentage.

“With every kind of observation that goes into weather models, we know they have some impact on improving accuracy overall,” said one of the researchers, Stan Benjamin, a senior scientist at the Global Systems Laboratory, a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in Boulder, Colo. “If you’ve really lost a lot of observations of some kind there could be some stepping back in skill overall.”

While the researchers showed that the data loss contributed to making the model less accurate, NOAA said that so far it had not seen an impact on the type of short-term forecasts that companies use to make business decisions or a person might use to decide if they need to take an umbrella when going out.

“We are not directly seeing a readily apparent reduction in forecast accuracy as we continue to receive valuable data from passenger and cargo aircraft along with numerous other data sources,” an agency statement said. Those other sources include satellites, ocean buoys and instruments carried aloft by weather balloons.

The amount of data from aircraft has also increased in recent months as air travel has picked up, the agency said. The daily number of flights by passenger aircraft in the United States is now at about 50 percent of pre-pandemic levels. Flights by cargo aircraft were not as affected.

Dr. Benjamin, along with two colleagues working at the laboratory, Eric P. James of the University of Colorado and Brian D. Jamison of Colorado State University, simulated conditions during the pandemic in April by taking data from 2018 and 2019 and eliminating 80 percent of it before feeding it into a forecasting model developed by NOAA called Rapid Refresh.

They compared the errors that resulted to those if the model included no aircraft data.

“We had to look to see if 80 percent gives 80 percent of impact,” Dr. Benjamin said. “But it’s not quite that much.” They found that eliminating 80 percent of the data produced errors

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Forecasting college football’s coaching carousel — Hugh Freeze, Steve Sarkisian, Jim Harbaugh and more

We know the college football coaching carousel will be limited this year. The only question is: How much?

Financial challenges stemming from the coronavirus pandemic are real. When combined with reduced game schedules and coach-friendly contracts, schools will need extreme motivation to make changes in the coming weeks.

This past weekend wasn’t very good for those rooting for carousel craziness. The thought of 10-15 coaching changes, half of a typical coaching cycle, seems highly unlikely.

So let’s speculate instead. Last year, when things were normal but the upcoming carousel looked a little dull, I put together a list of hypotheticals. Too many people didn’t read the operative word — “hypothetical”– but it was fun to forecast what could happen.

What follows isn’t necessarily a prediction, but a rundown of potential carousel nuggets (spicy ones!), based on what industry sources are telling me. Though it’s unlikely all of these send the carousel spinning, something will. Even a pandemic won’t stop some coaching movement.

“There’s a path,” a source said, “that this thing could open up.”

Let’s walk that path together.

Second chances for Sarkisian and Freeze?

The off-field problems that cost Alabama offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian and Liberty coach Hugh Freeze the opportunities to lead Power 5 programs are not the same. Sarkisian’s struggles with alcoholism led to his departure from USC. Freeze, meanwhile, resigned from Ole Miss in July 2017 amid personal conduct issues that included calls to a female escort service.

But Sarkisian and Freeze are thriving in their current roles. Sarkisian oversees arguably the nation’s most explosive offense and has molded quarterback Mac Jones into a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate. Liberty on Saturday improved to 6-0, giving Freeze a 14-5 record with the Flames, an FBS independent. Former Auburn quarterback Malik Willis is blossoming under Freeze, who has produced top offenses throughout his career.

Both men are excellent offensive playcallers and recruiters. Both have SEC experience. Could a major opportunity be on the horizon?

Source Article

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See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For Next Year

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE:TMO) defied analyst predictions to release its third-quarter results, which were ahead of market expectations. It was a solid earnings report, with revenues and statutory earnings per share (EPS) both coming in strong. Revenues were 11% higher than the analysts had forecast, at US$8.5b, while EPS were US$4.84 beating analyst models by 36%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there’s been a strong change in the company’s prospects, or if it’s business as usual. With this in mind, we’ve gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Thermo Fisher Scientific

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Thermo Fisher Scientific from 20 analysts is for revenues of US$32.1b in 2021 which, if met, would be a notable 13% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 21% to US$14.89. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$31.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$13.73 in 2021. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.

With these upgrades, we’re not surprised to see that the analysts have lifted their price target 6.5% to US$494per share. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so – it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Thermo Fisher Scientific analyst has a price target of US$550 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$325. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don’t appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. Next year brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to grow 13%, in line with its 11% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the wider industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 9.1% next year. So although Thermo Fisher Scientific is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it’s definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Thermo Fisher Scientific following these results. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes

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